Next leader out of power before 2027?
22 live outcomes · highest priced: None before 2027 at 49% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $2.9M total volume
About this event
This event tracks which world leader among a listed group will be the first to permanently leave their office before 2027. Markets represent individual leaders as well as an outcome for none leaving before the deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event operates on a mutually exclusive structure representing individual leaders and a 'None before 2027' option. Because the rules state resolution is based on the first listed individual to cease occupying office, at most one outcome can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes for the first listed individual who permanently ceases to occupy their specified office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements of resignation, scheduled departures, temporary removals (such as impeachment suspensions or provisional transfers), and remaining in caretaker or interim roles do not qualify. If no listed leader meets the criteria by the deadline, the 'None before 2027' market resolves Yes. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 49% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 39% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | 3% | ▲ 1 | Med | Med | |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | 3% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Lecornu - France PM | 1% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | 1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Merz - German Chancellor | <1% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| al-Sharaa - Syria President | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Trump - USA President | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Lula da Silva - Brazil President | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Erdoğan - Türkiye President | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Putin - Russia President | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Macron - France President | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Albanese - Australia PM | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Newsom - California Governor | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Milei - Argentina President | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Takaichi - Japan PM | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Sheinbaum - Mexico President | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low |