Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on who permanently leaves office first among a set of leaders before the end of 2026.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on who permanently leaves office first among a set of leaders before the end of 2026. The rules clearly define what does and does not count as leaving office, explicitly excluding announcements of future resignation, scheduled departures, temporary impeachment suspensions, provisional transfers of power, and situations where the leader remains in a caretaker or interim capacity. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official gazette or governmental register, which leaves discretion to the decider when interpreting whether a power transition is fully final or merely interim.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Emmanuel Macron will be the first among a listed group of leaders to permanently leave office before 2027. It uniquely requires a permanent removal from office, disregarding scheduled departures, resignation announcements, caretaker roles, and temporary suspensions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Emmanuel Macron (or Yes) if he is the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying his listed office before the deadline. Resignation announcements, scheduled departures from election outcomes, temporary removals (such as impeachment suspensions or 25th Amendment invocations), and continuing in a caretaker or interim role do not count as leaving office. The market resolves to another listed individual if that person is the first to permanently leave office under the same criteria. The market resolves to 'None before 2027' if no listed individual meets the departure criteria by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·