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GeopoliticsCloses · in 48 days$654.1K volumePart of: Next leader out of power before 2027? →

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

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Gotcha risk

Medium

2 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government register or designated authority.

Read the full assessment

Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government register or designated authority. The rules clearly define what does and does not qualify as leaving office, explicitly excluding resignation announcements, scheduled departure dates, temporary power transfers or impeachment suspensions, and periods served in an interim or caretaker capacity. A market participant must note that a leader announcing their departure will not trigger resolution until the handover is permanent and complete, and if no listed leader permanently leaves office before the December 31, 2026 deadline, the market resolves to the specified fallback outcome.

Resolver
High
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Medium

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

39%

chance

↔ ±0 pts · 24h

Yes39¢
No62¢
Netanyahu - Israel PM · Yes · 1MO 30.5 H 44.0 L 16.5 C 38.5+8.0 (+26.2%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −11 pts24h · detected 9 Nov 2026, 16:55 UTC

The probability of Benjamin Netanyahu being the next leader out dropped from 44% to 34% as part of a broader repricing across related outcomes in the same market, where odds for 'None before 2027' rose while other candidates declined.

  • Largest hourly change: 11:00 UTC, 54% of the net 24-hour change.
  • Closes 52 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 1 in the same direction. Largest: None before 2027 (up), Sánchez - Spanish PM (down).

News check pending.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 9 Nov 2026, 17:05 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market explained

This market measures whether Benjamin Netanyahu is the first among a set of listed leaders to permanently leave office before 2027. Resolution depends strictly on permanent removal rather than announcements or temporary suspensions.

How it resolves

The market resolves to the first listed individual who permanently ceases to occupy their listed office. Announcements of resignation or scheduled departures after an election do not qualify on their own. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions or temporary transfers of power, do not qualify. An individual continuing in an interim or caretaker role is not considered to have ceased occupying the office. If no listed individual meets the criterion by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "None before 2027". Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution source

A consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·