Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than an official government registry or specific primary source.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting rather than an official government registry or specific primary source. The rules explicitly clarify what does and does not count as leaving office: scheduled departures, resignation announcements, caretaker roles, and provisional or temporary transfers of power do not qualify, as only permanent removal triggers resolution. In jurisdictions with closed political systems, establishing whether and when a leader has permanently relinquished power according to media consensus may require subjective determination.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kim Jong Un will be the first among a specified list of leaders to permanently cease occupying his listed office before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Kim Jong Un (or Yes) if he is the first listed leader to permanently cease occupying his office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements of resignation or removal, scheduled election departures, temporary removals (such as impeachment suspensions or temporary 25th Amendment invocations), and continuing in a caretaker or interim role do not count. The market resolves to another listed individual if that person permanently leaves office first. The market resolves to "None before 2027" if no listed leader permanently leaves office before the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·