Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specified official record or government transition registry.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specified official record or government transition registry. The rules explicitly define departure mechanics, clarifying that announcements, scheduled transitions, temporary suspensions, and caretaker periods do not count until permanent loss of office occurs. Because this question depends on whether the subject leaves before other listed individuals, resolution hinges on relative timing against competitors rather than an absolute event in isolation, with the market resolving to a negative fallback outcome if no listed leader leaves before the end of 2026.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Xi Jinping is the first among a set of listed leaders to permanently leave office before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Xi Jinping is the first listed leader to permanently cease occupying his listed office before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Announcements of resignation or scheduled election departures alone do not count. Temporary removals such as impeachment suspensions or provisional transfers of power do not count, and serving in an interim or caretaker role does not count as leaving office. The market resolves to No if another listed leader permanently leaves office first. It resolves to None before 2027 if no listed leader permanently leaves office by the deadline. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·