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CryptoCloses · in 321 days$16.6K volumePart of: When will Bitcoin hit $100k? →

Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027?

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Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: This market resolves according to clear, objective criteria tied directly to a single named source.

Read the full assessment

This market resolves according to clear, objective criteria tied directly to a single named source. Resolution depends entirely on the high price of any one-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance reaching or exceeding $100,000 before 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2027. The rules specify early resolution to Yes if the threshold is met at any point, and restrict the data source strictly to Binance BTC/USDT, explicitly excluding other exchanges and pairs. There is virtually no decider discretion or ambiguity in the threshold calculation.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

35%

chance

▼ −15 pts · 24h

Yes35¢
No66¢
by September 30, 2027 · Yes · 1MO 64.0 H 64.0 L 34.5 C 34.5−29.5 (−46.1%)

Why it moved

Latest move

▼ −17 pts24h · detected 13 Nov 2026, 06:10 UTC

The market fell from 51% to 34% as Bitcoin dropped 7.32% over 24 hours on Binance, a likely driver reducing the perceived chance of reaching $100k.

  • Largest hourly change: 05:00 UTC, 42% of the net 24-hour change.
  • BTC (Binance): −0.6% in the move hour, −7.3% over 24 hours.
  • Closes 321 days after the move hour.
  • 2 related outcomes moved in the same window, 2 in the same direction. Largest: by June 30, 2027 (down), by December 31, 2026 (down).

Price facts only. News isn't searched for crypto markets yet.

A possible driver, not a confirmed cause. Wallets are anonymous. Activity is public on-chain; it says nothing about intent.

AI-generated · 13 Nov 2026, 06:20 UTC

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market until 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than $100,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Market explained

This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches or exceeds a price of $100,000 before the end of September 30, 2027. It relies strictly on the 1-minute candle high prices of Binance's BTC/USDT pair, excluding all other exchanges and trading pairs.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair records a final High price equal to or greater than $100,000 between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2027. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches this threshold by the deadline. Resolution depends solely on Binance BTC/USDT price data; prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are disregarded. The deciding source is Binance.

Resolution source

Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·