Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual agreement to suspend direct military engagement across the general conflict by the deadline.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual agreement to suspend direct military engagement across the general conflict by the deadline. While the rules provide clear negative criteria—excluding unilateral pauses, backchannel understandings, and localized or target-specific truces—the determination relies heavily on decider judgment regarding what constitutes an official announcement or a consensus of credible reporting. If an agreement is finalized before the deadline, it qualifies even if the actual pause takes effect later, but ambiguous de-escalation statements without an explicit dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
68%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2027. It unusually resolves to Yes as long as a qualifying agreement is reached before the deadline, even if the ceasefire takes effect after the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is officially reached by November 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements require a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement that constitutes a general pause in the conflict, officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, and with an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting. Broader peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses qualify if they meet these terms. Partial agreements limited to specific targets or locations, informal understandings, backchannel communications, unilateral pauses, and agreements outlining future negotiations without a dated commitment do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. The resolution is determined by official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·