Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define what qualifies as a ceasefire agreement, explicitly requiring a mutual, general pause in direct military engagement rather than a localized, category-specific, or unilateral pause.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define what qualifies as a ceasefire agreement, explicitly requiring a mutual, general pause in direct military engagement rather than a localized, category-specific, or unilateral pause. Agreements reached before the deadline will count even if their effective start date falls after the deadline, provided they contain an explicit commitment to stop fighting. Resolution relies either on official government announcements from Russia and Ukraine or on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some latitude to the market decider if official statements conflict or are ambiguous.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −1.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine is officially reached by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, even if the ceasefire takes effect after that date. Qualifying agreements include a broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause that constitutes a general pause in fighting with an explicit, dated commitment. Agreements covering only specific locations or target categories, frameworks outlining future talks without a dated halt to fighting, informal understandings, backchannel communications, de-escalation without an agreement, and unilateral pauses do not qualify. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by official government statements from Russia and Ukraine or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·