PoliticsCloses · in 725 days$9.8M volumePart of: Presidential Election Winner 2028 →

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Gotcha risk

Low

0 of 4 factors flagged

Watch for: The rules provide clear and objective resolution mechanics.

Read the full assessment

The rules provide clear and objective resolution mechanics. Resolution occurs as soon as three specified news organizations (the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) all project the same winner. If a unanimous consensus among those outlets does not occur before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market resolves definitively based on who is inaugurated. This explicit fallback prevents prolonged deadlocks and leaves minimal room for ambiguity or source discretion.

Resolver
Low
Timing
Low
Wording
Low
Exceptions
Low

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·

Current price

3%

chance

↔ ±0 pts · 24h

Yes3¢
No97¢
Kamala Harris · Yes · 1MO 4.5 H 4.5 L 2.8 C 3.3−1.2 (−27.0%)

Why it moved

No big moves in the last 7 days.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Market explained

This market measures whether Kamala Harris will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.

How it resolves

The market resolves to Yes if Kamala Harris wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.

Resolution source

Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or the inauguration)

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·