Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly specify the outcome and the decision mechanism.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly specify the outcome and the decision mechanism. Resolution requires agreement across three specified major news organizations—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If a consensus among all three outlets does not materialize before the inauguration date, the market explicitly falls back to whoever is officially inaugurated on January 20, 2029. This leaves minimal room for ambiguity, timing discrepancies, or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tulsi Gabbard will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tulsi Gabbard wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. It resolves to No if another person wins the election. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with actual inauguration serving as the fallback.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·