Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are straightforward and rely on three specific major media networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—reaching a consensus call on the race winner.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are straightforward and rely on three specific major media networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—reaching a consensus call on the race winner. If all three outlets do not agree before Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market falls back definitively to whichever individual is officially inaugurated as president. The rules provide clear thresholds and a concrete fallback mechanism with minimal room for subjective interpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump Jr. will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump Jr. wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or the inauguration)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·