Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has straightforward resolution terms tied to the outcome of the 2028 US Presidential Election.
Read the full assessment
The market has straightforward resolution terms tied to the outcome of the 2028 US Presidential Election. It specifies three major media networks—Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires all three to project the same winner for early resolution. If a consensus call is not reached among all three outlets prior to Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market resolves definitively based on the individual who is inaugurated. The criteria and fallback procedures leave very little room for ambiguity or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Zohran Mamdani wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·