Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules provide clear and objective mechanics.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules provide clear and objective mechanics. Resolution occurs as soon as three specified major media networks—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—all call the presidential race for the same candidate. If a unanimous call among the three outlets does not occur prior to the scheduled inauguration date of January 20, 2029, the market falls back definitively to whichever individual is inaugurated.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Michelle Obama will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Michelle Obama wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another person wins the election. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date, resolution is determined by who is inaugurated. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with the actual inauguration serving as the fallback source.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (fallback: who is inaugurated)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·