Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly define how the winner is determined using three named major media decision desks: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly define how the winner is determined using three named major media decision desks: the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. Resolution occurs as soon as all three sources project the same winning candidate. If a consensus among all three outlets is not reached by January 20, 2029, the market falls back to whoever is officially inaugurated. The criteria leave minimal room for subjective judgment or timing disputes.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether James Talarico will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if James Talarico wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. It resolves to No if another candidate wins. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or whoever is inaugurated as fallback)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·