Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly defined with minimal ambiguity.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are clearly defined with minimal ambiguity. Resolution relies on consensus race calls across three named major news networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), leaving little room for decider discretion. If the three outlets do not unanimously call the race before January 20, 2029, a definitive fallback resolves the market based directly on who is inaugurated as president. The rules align closely with the core question and provide clear trigger conditions.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Abigail Spanberger will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Abigail Spanberger wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. The outcome is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or inauguration)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·