Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolving the market.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolving the market. Resolution relies on consensus across three specific, named major news networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC). If the three outlets do not all project the same winner by the presidential inauguration on January 20, 2029, the market falls back definitively to whichever candidate is officially inaugurated. There are no vague criteria or discretionary override mechanisms.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Adam Schiff wins the 2028 US presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Adam Schiff wins the 2028 US presidential election. The market resolves to No if anyone else wins. The decision is made by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, resolving once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·