Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution terms are straightforward and rely on three specific major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) reaching consensus on the race winner.
Read the full assessment
The resolution terms are straightforward and rely on three specific major media outlets (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) reaching consensus on the race winner. A clear backstop rule specifies that if all three outlets have not aligned by January 20, 2029, the market will resolve according to who is officially inaugurated. There is minimal room for interpretive dispute.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alex Padilla wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Alex Padilla wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. This market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (or the inauguration)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·