Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly specified and follow standard election market mechanics.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are clearly specified and follow standard election market mechanics. Resolution occurs as soon as all three named media organizations—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—unanimously project the same winner. If all three outlets do not reach agreement before the official presidential inauguration date of January 20, 2029, the market falls back to whoever is sworn in. The path to resolution is objective, leaving virtually no room for decider interpretation or unexpected outcomes.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mike Johnson wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mike Johnson wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another person wins the election. Resolution requires the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC to all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated. The deciding sources are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with presidential inauguration serving as the fallback.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC (fallback: presidential inauguration)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·