Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly defined and follow standard presidential election mechanics.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are clearly defined and follow standard presidential election mechanics. Resolution relies on three specific named news organizations (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC) reaching a consensus call on the winner. If all three outlets do not agree by January 20, 2029, a clear fallback resolves the market based on who is officially inaugurated. There are no ambiguous thresholds or unusual clauses.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Doug Burgum will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Doug Burgum wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins. Resolution is determined by consensus among the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·