Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market has clear and unambiguous resolution mechanics.
Read the full assessment
This market has clear and unambiguous resolution mechanics. It names three specific media outlets—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—and requires all three to agree on the projected winner before resolving early. If consensus among those three outlets is not reached before Inauguration Day, a definitive fallback resolves the market based on who is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. There is minimal room for subjective interpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▼ −0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Market explained
This market measures whether Raphael Warnock will win the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Raphael Warnock wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by the January 20, 2029 inauguration date, the market resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, or the official inauguration
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·