Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
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Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules are straightforward and directly aligned with the question.
Read the full assessment
The rules are straightforward and directly aligned with the question. Resolution depends entirely on the official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize. The rules explicitly account for joint awards, confirming that being named among multiple recipients qualifies for a positive outcome. There is also a clear longstop date of March 31, 2028, after which the market resolves negatively if no announcement has occurred, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
10%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market explained
This market measures whether Yulia Navalnaya is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Yulia Navalnaya is announced as a recipient of the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including if the prize is awarded jointly. The market resolves to No if she is not awarded the prize, or if no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize is made by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The Norwegian Nobel Committee's first official announcement serves as the deciding source.
Resolution source
First official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·