Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules are straightforward and designate a single authoritative source, the Norwegian Nobel Committee, to decide the outcome based on its official announcement.
Read the full assessment
The rules are straightforward and designate a single authoritative source, the Norwegian Nobel Committee, to decide the outcome based on its official announcement. Clear criteria are provided for joint prizes and a concrete cutoff date of March 31, 2028, ensures unambiguous resolution to 'No' if no announcement is made.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance▲ +0.4 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pope Leo XIV is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pope Leo XIV is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including as a joint recipient. The market resolves to No if Pope Leo XIV is not awarded the prize, or if no official announcement regarding the 2027 prize is made by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Resolution source
The first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·