Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee for the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee for the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize. It accounts for joint awards by confirming that sharing the prize qualifies for a positive outcome, and it includes a clear fallback resolution to negative if no announcement occurs by March 31, 2028. There are no discretionary sources or unexpected conditions.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elon Musk will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for the year 2027. It allows for resolution to Yes even if the award is shared jointly among multiple recipients.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including as a joint recipient. The market resolves to No if he is not awarded the prize, or if no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize is made by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Resolution source
The Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·