Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has very clear rules tied to an unambiguous, authoritative decision-maker.
Read the full assessment
The market has very clear rules tied to an unambiguous, authoritative decision-maker. Resolution relies strictly on the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize. Joint awards are explicitly addressed and will count as a positive outcome if the named individual is included. There is a precise longstop date of March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET, resolving to No if no announcement has been made, leaving virtually no room for subjective interpretation or surprise.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market explained
This market measures whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including as a joint recipient.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including if he is named as a joint recipient. The market resolves to No if he is not awarded the prize, or if no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize is made by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The Norwegian Nobel Committee decides the outcome via its first official announcement.
Resolution source
First official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·