Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules are straightforward and designate a single authoritative entity, the Norwegian Nobel Committee, as the resolution source.
Read the full assessment
The rules are straightforward and designate a single authoritative entity, the Norwegian Nobel Committee, as the resolution source. The market clearly addresses potential scenarios such as joint awards (which still qualify for a positive resolution) and includes a precise longstop date of March 31, 2028, after which the market resolves to negative if no announcement has occurred. Because the criteria align directly with official announcements and leave essentially no room for discretionary interpretation, resolution risk is minimal.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market explained
This market measures whether Greta Thunberg is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027. It allows for resolution to Yes even if the prize is awarded jointly.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Greta Thunberg is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including as a joint recipient. The market resolves to No if she is not named as a recipient, or if no official announcement regarding the 2027 prize has been made by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The Norwegian Nobel Committee's first official announcement decides the outcome.
Resolution source
First official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·