Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules are straightforward and rely on an unambiguous official authority, the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Read the full assessment
The rules are straightforward and rely on an unambiguous official authority, the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The criteria explicitly account for joint awards and specify that António Guterres must be among the announced recipients for the market to resolve favorably. A definitive timeout deadline of March 31, 2028, provides a clear fallback if no prize is awarded or announced.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market explained
This market measures whether António Guterres is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, either individually or jointly.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if António Guterres is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including as a joint recipient. The market resolves to No if he is not awarded the prize. It also resolves to No if the Norwegian Nobel Committee makes no official announcement regarding the 2027 prize by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The Norwegian Nobel Committee's first official announcement serves as the deciding source.
Resolution source
The Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·