Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market has clear and straightforward resolution mechanics.
Read the full assessment
This market has clear and straightforward resolution mechanics. Resolution relies on a single named official authority, the Norwegian Nobel Committee, via its first official announcement. The criteria for joint awards are explicitly defined to resolve positively if the named individual is among the recipients, and there is a definitive backstop deadline of March 31, 2028, resolving to negative if no announcement is made.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
11%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jimmy Lai will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for the year 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jimmy Lai is named as an individual recipient or joint recipient of the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize. The market resolves to No if Jimmy Lai is not awarded the prize, or if no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided using the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Resolution source
The first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·