Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules are straightforward and point directly to the official announcement by the Norwegian Nobel Committee as the definitive resolution source.
Read the full assessment
The rules are straightforward and point directly to the official announcement by the Norwegian Nobel Committee as the definitive resolution source. There is clear guidance covering joint awards as well as a specific fallback deadline (March 31, 2028) resolving to No if no award is announced. The criteria leave minimal room for interpretation or unexpected outcomes.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
8%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize. It resolves positively even if the prize is awarded jointly with others.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if UNRWA is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including if it is awarded jointly among multiple recipients. The market resolves to No if UNRWA is not awarded the prize, or if no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Resolution source
The first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·