Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are straightforward and directly tied to an official announcement by the Norwegian Nobel Committee regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are straightforward and directly tied to an official announcement by the Norwegian Nobel Committee regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize. The rules explicitly cover joint awards and define a clear fallback deadline resolving to No if no announcement is made by March 31, 2028. The designated authoritative source leaves no room for subjective interpretation or decider discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
5%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual or organization is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the prize is awarded jointly, each listed individual or organization named among the recipients will resolve to "Yes". This market is not limited to a single winner. If no official announcement regarding the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Market explained
This market measures whether the International Court of Justice is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including as a joint recipient.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the International Court of Justice is awarded the 2027 Nobel Peace Prize, including if it is named as a joint recipient. The market resolves to No if the organization is not awarded the prize, or if no official announcement regarding the 2027 prize is made by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The Norwegian Nobel Committee's first official announcement decides the outcome.
Resolution source
The first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·