Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves using official FOMC statements and data published directly on the Federal Reserve website.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves using official FOMC statements and data published directly on the Federal Reserve website. The rules clearly define how rate cuts are tallied, specifying that rate cuts are measured in 25 basis point increments (for example, a 50 basis point cut counts as two cuts, while any cut between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one cut). Emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings are included, and the market stays open until December 31, 2026, to capture any year-end actions. Position holders should be aware of the early resolution clause, which resolves the market to No immediately if cumulative rate cuts exceed one before the year ends.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will make exactly 1 interest rate cut in 2026. Rate cuts are measured in 25-basis-point increments, with cuts of 1–24 basis points also counting as 1 cut.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly 1 rate cut during 2026. Cuts are measured as 25 basis point increments (for example, a 50 bps cut counts as 2 cuts), and any cut between 1–24 bps also counts as 1 cut. Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled meetings count toward the total. The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is not exactly 1. The market will resolve early to No if more than 1 cut occurs before the end of the year. The outcome is determined by official FOMC statements and Federal Reserve target rate data.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·