Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves using official Federal Reserve statements and data published on named Federal Reserve web pages.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves using official Federal Reserve statements and data published on named Federal Reserve web pages. The rules clearly define how rate reductions map to cut counts, specifying that standard 25 basis point cuts are the baseline unit, a 50 basis point reduction counts as two cuts, and smaller cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut. Emergency unscheduled cuts are explicitly included. Positions should note that the market resolves early to No if the cumulative number of cuts exceeds four before the end of 2026, and the market tracks gross rate cuts across the calendar year through December 31, 2026.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly 4 rate cuts (measured in 25-basis-point increments) in 2026, including scheduled and emergency cuts.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve implements exactly 4 cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, including cuts from the December 2026 meeting and emergency cuts. Cuts between 1–24 bps count as 1 rate cut, and larger cuts are divided into 25 bps increments (e.g., a 50 bps cut counts as 2 cuts). The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is not exactly 4. The market will resolve early to No if more than 4 cuts occur, making the exact strike of 4 impossible. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·