Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on official Federal Reserve statements and published data from the Federal Reserve website.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on official Federal Reserve statements and published data from the Federal Reserve website. The rules clearly specify how cut quantities are calculated, defining them in 25 basis point increments (with a 50 basis point reduction counting as two cuts) and explicitly noting that any reduction between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one cut. Both regular FOMC meetings and emergency unscheduled actions through December 31, 2026, are included. There is an early resolution provision that resolves the market to 'No' if the cumulative number of cuts exceeds five before the year ends, as reaching exactly five would become mathematically impossible under these definitions. The authoritative sources and numerical definitions leave very little room for dispute.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly 5 rate cuts (measured in 25 basis point increments) during 2026. Rate cuts are normalized such that 50 bps counts as 2 cuts and 1–24 bps counts as 1 cut.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly 5 cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, including actions from scheduled meetings and emergency cuts. A 50 bps reduction counts as 2 cuts, and any reduction between 1 and 24 bps counts as 1 cut. The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is not exactly 5. It will resolve early to No if more cuts have already occurred than the specified target. The resolution source is official FOMC statements and the target federal funds rate data published on the Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and Federal Reserve target rate data
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·