Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how rate cuts are quantified, defining a standard cut as 25 basis points and explicitly noting that a 50 basis point reduction counts as two cuts, while smaller cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how rate cuts are quantified, defining a standard cut as 25 basis points and explicitly noting that a 50 basis point reduction counts as two cuts, while smaller cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut. Emergency rate cuts outside scheduled meetings are explicitly included through the end of 2026. The resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve meeting statements and open market rate announcements via provided links, leaving virtually no source discretion. The market also includes a clear early resolution clause resolving to No if the cumulative number of cuts exceeds the specified target before year-end.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▲ +0.1 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will make exactly two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026. Rate cuts are calculated in increments of 25 bps, with smaller cuts of 1–24 bps counted as one cut, and emergency cuts are included.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve implements exactly two cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, including actions from scheduled meetings or emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings. Larger cuts count in multiples of 25 bps (for example, a 50 bps cut counts as two cuts), while cuts of 1–24 bps count as one cut. The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is anything other than exactly two. The market resolves early to No as soon as three or more cuts have occurred, making the outcome impossible. The deciding source is FOMC statements and target federal funds rate data published on the official Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·