Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how interest rate changes are measured, defining 25 basis point increments, handling larger or smaller cut sizes explicitly, and including unscheduled emergency cuts.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how interest rate changes are measured, defining 25 basis point increments, handling larger or smaller cut sizes explicitly, and including unscheduled emergency cuts. Resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve meeting statements and target rate publications via provided links. The market also includes an early resolution clause to resolve negative immediately if any rate cut occurs during 2026, or at year-end if no cuts take place.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
98%
chance▼ −0.3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements zero interest rate cuts in 2026. Rate reductions are measured in 25 basis point increments, and any cut between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one cut.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fed makes exactly zero rate cuts in 2026. The market resolves to No as soon as any rate cut occurs during 2026, making zero cuts impossible. Both scheduled FOMC meeting cuts (including December) and emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings count toward the total. Cuts of 50 basis points count as two cuts, while any cut of 1–24 basis points counts as one cut. The Federal Reserve's official FOMC statements and published target federal funds rate levels decide the outcome.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·