Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market defines rate cuts in standard 25 basis point increments and cites official Federal Reserve meeting statements and Open Market operations pages as the direct resolution source.
Read the full assessment
The market defines rate cuts in standard 25 basis point increments and cites official Federal Reserve meeting statements and Open Market operations pages as the direct resolution source. It clearly accounts for larger cuts (e.g., 50 bps counts as two cuts) and specifies that emergency cuts outside regular FOMC meetings count toward the 2026 total. A specific rule to note is that any cut between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one full cut. Additionally, the market will resolve early to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 exceeds three before the year ends, but otherwise remains open through December 31, 2026, to monitor for any late emergency actions.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly 3 rate cuts (denominated in 25-basis-point increments) during 2026. Rate cuts are measured in 25 bps units, where larger cuts count as multiples and cuts of 1–24 bps count as 1 cut.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly 3 rate cuts of 25 basis points (or equivalents) in 2026, including actions at scheduled FOMC meetings through December or emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings. Cuts are measured such that a 50 bps cut counts as 2 cuts, and any cut between 1–24 bps counts as 1 cut. The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is any number other than 3. The market resolves early to No if more than 3 cuts occur before the end of the year, making the target impossible. The resolution is determined by FOMC statements and target rate data published on the official Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and target federal funds rate publications on the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·