Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how rate cuts are quantified, defining larger cuts as multiples of 25 basis points and non-standard cuts of 1 to 24 basis points as single cuts.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how rate cuts are quantified, defining larger cuts as multiples of 25 basis points and non-standard cuts of 1 to 24 basis points as single cuts. Emergency actions are explicitly included, and the market establishes a clear early resolution clause resolving to No if the count exceeds the target strike before year-end. Resolution is determined by official Federal Reserve Open Market Committee statements and official rate data, leaving no room for discretionary interpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve will make exactly 7 rate cuts (measured in 25 basis point increments) during 2026. A notable rule is that cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as a full 25 bps cut, and emergency cuts outside scheduled meetings are included.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly 7 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, including actions at scheduled meetings or emergency cuts. A 50 bps cut counts as 2 cuts, and any cut between 1 and 24 bps counts as 1 cut. The market resolves to No if the exact number of cuts in 2026 is not 7. It resolves early to No as soon as more than 7 cuts have already taken place. Resolution decisions are based on FOMC statements and official target federal funds rate data from the Federal Reserve.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·