Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how interest rate cuts are measured, noting that cuts are counted in 25-basis-point increments and that cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how interest rate cuts are measured, noting that cuts are counted in 25-basis-point increments and that cuts between 1 and 24 basis points count as one cut. Resolution relies directly on official Federal Reserve statements and data via specified links, leaving virtually no source discretion. The market features an early resolution condition resolving to No if the total number of cuts exceeds eight before the year concludes, and it remains open until the end of 2026 to capture any potential unscheduled emergency cuts.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly 8 rate cuts (measured in 25-basis-point increments) during 2026. Rate cuts are normalized where every 25 bps reduction counts as one cut, and reductions of 1–24 bps also count as one cut.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly 8 cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, including scheduled and emergency cuts. Each 25 bps reduction equals one cut, a 50 bps cut counts as two cuts, and any cut between 1 and 24 bps inclusive counts as one cut. The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is not exactly 8. The market will resolve early to No if more than 8 cuts occur before the end of the year, making the target impossible. Resolution is determined by official FOMC statements and target federal funds rate data published by the Federal Reserve.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official website of the Federal Reserve
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·