Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market resolves based on official Federal Reserve announcements and statements available directly on official Federal Reserve website URLs.
Read the full assessment
The market resolves based on official Federal Reserve announcements and statements available directly on official Federal Reserve website URLs. The rules clearly define how rate changes are counted: standard 25 basis point increments, counting 50 basis points as two cuts, and treating any partial cut between 1 and 24 basis points as one cut. Both scheduled FOMC meetings and emergency inter-meeting cuts are tracked through December 31, 2026. Note that this is an exact-count market rather than an 'at least' threshold; the rules specify an early resolution to No if more cuts occur during the year than the target strike.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve executes exactly 10 rate cuts (measured in 25 basis point increments) during 2026. A notable detail is that rate reductions between 1 and 24 basis points count as a full 25 bps cut, and 50 bps cuts count as 2 cuts.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly 10 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, including actions from scheduled meetings (through the December meeting) and emergency cuts. A 50 bps cut counts as 2 cuts, and any cut between 1 and 24 bps counts as 1 cut. The market resolves to No if the total number of cuts in 2026 is not exactly 10. The market resolves early to No if more than 10 cuts occur, making the exact total impossible. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve target federal funds rate publications.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and the official Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·