Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution is determined strictly by official Federal Reserve announcements and statements published on the Fed website.
Read the full assessment
Resolution is determined strictly by official Federal Reserve announcements and statements published on the Fed website. The rules provide precise conversion mechanics for rate changes, specifying that 50 basis points equal two cuts and any fractional reduction between 1 and 24 basis points counts as one cut. Unscheduled emergency cuts are explicitly accounted for, with the market remaining open through December 31, 2026, to capture any year-end moves. Additionally, an early resolution rule allows the market to resolve to No if the total number of cuts exceeds 11 before the year ends. The criteria are unambiguous and rely on a definitive institutional source.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Federal Reserve implements exactly 11 rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026. Rate cuts are measured in 25-basis-point increments, with cuts between 1–24 basis points counting as 1 cut and emergency cuts also included.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve makes exactly 11 rate cuts in 2026. Standard cuts of 25 basis points count as 1 cut, a 50 bps cut counts as 2 cuts, and cuts between 1–24 bps count as 1 cut. Emergency rate cuts outside scheduled meetings and cuts during the December meeting count toward the total. The market resolves to No if the Fed does not make exactly 11 cuts by the end of 2026. It resolves early to No if more than 11 cuts have already occurred, making 11 cuts impossible. Resolution is determined by FOMC statements following meetings in 2026 and target rate data published on the official Federal Reserve website.
Resolution source
FOMC statements and target federal funds rate data published on the Federal Reserve website
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·