Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly defined based on an objective metric: the person ranked first on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at 5:30 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are clearly defined based on an objective metric: the person ranked first on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at 5:30 PM ET on December 31, 2026. A clear fallback order is provided with explicit deadlines, moving first to the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List if the primary source is delayed, and finally defaulting to the latest available Bloomberg data by January 2, 2027. The only minor detail to note is that the question does not state the year directly, but the rules explicitly establish December 31, 2026 as the target date.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Market explained
This market measures whether Steve Ballmer is ranked as the wealthiest individual on a specific date according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, with a fallback to Forbes if the primary source is unavailable.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Steve Ballmer is ranked as the richest person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, at 5:30 PM ET. The market resolves No if anyone other than Steve Ballmer is ranked as the richest person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on that date and time. If the Bloomberg Billionaires Index data for December 31, 2026, is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used. If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The resolution is decided by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, with Forbes as a fallback.
Resolution source
Bloomberg Billionaires Index
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·