Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market provides precise resolution criteria based on a specific URL and column on Box Office Mojo for 2026 domestic calendar gross once December 31 data is posted.
Read the full assessment
The market provides precise resolution criteria based on a specific URL and column on Box Office Mojo for 2026 domestic calendar gross once December 31 data is posted. A specific tiebreaker rule is defined, and a fixed fallback deadline of January 7, 2027, is established if Box Office Mojo data is unavailable. Note that calendar gross counts only earnings within 2026 rather than full lifetime theatrical runs, but this constraint is explicitly documented.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
88%
chance▼ −1.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market explained
This market measures whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day achieves the highest domestic calendar box office gross in 2026. A distinctive feature is that resolution relies strictly on 2026 calendar-year earnings rather than lifetime totals, with alphabetical tie-breaking.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Spider-Man: Brand New Day has the highest 2026 gross in the domestic calendar gross rankings. Only box office earnings strictly within the calendar year 2026 count toward the total. If there is an exact tie for the top gross, the film listed first alphabetically is considered the winner. The market resolves to No if any other film finishes with the highest 2026 domestic calendar gross. Resolution is determined by Box Office Mojo data for December 31, 2026. If final data is unavailable by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·