Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution criteria are clearly defined and anchored to a specific URL and column on Box Office Mojo.
Read the full assessment
The resolution criteria are clearly defined and anchored to a specific URL and column on Box Office Mojo. The rules explicitly clarify that only domestic calendar gross within the calendar year 2026 counts, rather than a film's total lifetime gross, which prevents common misunderstandings for late-year releases. A clear tie-breaker rule based on alphabetical order is included, and a backup mechanism is provided with a defined deadline if the primary source does not report final data in time.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dune: Messiah will have the highest domestic calendar box office gross in 2026. Only earnings within the 2026 calendar year count toward the total.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Dune: Messiah has the highest 2026 domestic calendar gross listed in the Gross column on Box Office Mojo once data for December 31, 2026, is available. In an exact tie, the film appearing first alphabetically wins. Earnings outside of the 2026 calendar year do not count. The market resolves No if any other film holds the top grossing spot or wins the alphabetical tiebreaker. Box Office Mojo serves as the primary resolution source. If final data is unavailable by January 7, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source
Box Office Mojo
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·