Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define how the market will resolve using an explicit, named NASA GISS dataset, specific table, column, and row.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define how the market will resolve using an explicit, named NASA GISS dataset, specific table, column, and row. The ranking methodology and handling of ties are straightforward. The market locks in the first published figure to avoid issues with later data revisions. A specific fallback deadline of March 1, 2027, is provided in the event NASA data is delayed or unavailable, which slightly opens up source discretion only if the primary dataset fails to publish in time.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
94%
chance▲ +2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether 2026 is ranked as the hottest year on record in NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index dataset.
How it resolves
The market resolves based on the numerical rank of 2026's temperature compared to all other recorded years in the dataset, ranked in descending order where rank 1 is the hottest. If 2026 ties with another year, it resolves according to the place occupied by that tied year. The primary source is the 'No_Smoothing' figure for 2026 in NASA's 'Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)' table. The market resolves immediately once data is published and ignores later revisions. If the primary table is permanently unavailable, other NASA data may be used. If NASA provides no data by March 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (Land-Ocean Temperature Index table, No_Smoothing column)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·