Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify a precise, publicly accessible data source from NASA GISS and identify the exact table, column, and row to use for ranking global temperatures.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify a precise, publicly accessible data source from NASA GISS and identify the exact table, column, and row to use for ranking global temperatures. Resolution locks in immediately upon the initial release of data without being altered by later retrospective adjustments, removing uncertainty around data revisions. If NASA does not publish data by March 1, 2027, a clear backup process using credible reporting is defined. The tie-handling rule is straightforward, and the decider is left with minimal subjective discretion.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether 2026 ranks as the fifth-hottest year on record based on NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Resolution occurs immediately upon data release and disregards any later revisions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if 2026 ranks fifth in descending order among all recorded years in the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. If 2026 ties with another year, it resolves according to the shared rank. The market resolves to No if 2026 finishes in any rank other than fifth. Resolution happens immediately when data is released, regardless of subsequent revisions. The primary deciding source is the No_Smoothing column for 2026 in the NASA GISTEMP Land-Ocean Temperature Index data table. If that dataset is permanently unavailable, other NASA data will be used. If NASA provides no data by March 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible reporting will decide the outcome.
Resolution source
NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GISTEMP)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·