Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market provides unambiguous resolution criteria based on an exact URL, table, column, and row published by NASA GISS.
Read the full assessment
The market provides unambiguous resolution criteria based on an exact URL, table, column, and row published by NASA GISS. The ranking methodology is explicitly defined, and the rules state that resolution occurs immediately upon initial data publication without waiting for subsequent revisions. A fallback to consensus reporting exists only if the official source fails to publish 2026 data by March 1, 2027. The tie-handling rule is noted, though typical climate data records provide distinct decimal values.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the year 2026 will rank as the fourth-hottest year on record according to global temperature data. Ties share the rank of the year tied with, and subsequent revisions to the data are disregarded once resolved.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if 2026 ranks as the fourth-hottest year when compared against all other recorded years in descending order. If 2026 ties with another year, it assumes the place occupied by that tied year. The market resolves to No if 2026 ranks in any position other than fourth. The primary resolution source is NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data table. If this index becomes permanently unavailable, other NASA information may be used. If NASA provides no data for 2026 by March 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting. Resolution occurs immediately upon data availability, regardless of later revisions.
Resolution source
NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GISTEMP)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·