Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the calculation method and data source, designating a specific URL, table, and data column from NASA GISS.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the calculation method and data source, designating a specific URL, table, and data column from NASA GISS. The ranking methodology is explicitly outlined with the hottest year designated as rank 1. Resolution occurs immediately upon initial publication of the 2026 data without regard to later revisions. Clear fallback provisions and a definitive cutoff date of March 1, 2027, are provided in the event NASA data is unavailable.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
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Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the year 2026 will rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower based on global temperature data.
How it resolves
The market resolves as Yes if the year 2026 ranks 6th or lower (e.g., 6th, 7th, 8th, etc.) when all available years are ranked in descending order from hottest (rank 1) to coldest. If 2026 ties with another year, it assumes that year's rank. The market resolves as No if 2026 ranks among the top five hottest years on record (1st through 5th). Resolution occurs immediately once the specified data is published and ignores later revisions. NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data table serves as the primary source. If that source becomes permanently unavailable, other NASA data is used. If NASA provides no data for 2026 by March 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible reporting decides the outcome.
Resolution source
NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GISTEMP)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·