Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market is governed by clear and deterministic criteria, pointing directly to a specific table, column, and row within the NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index dataset.
Read the full assessment
The market is governed by clear and deterministic criteria, pointing directly to a specific table, column, and row within the NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index dataset. It resolves immediately upon the initial publication of the 2026 figure, explicitly excluding post-resolution data revisions from changing the result. Clear fallbacks are provided if the primary URL becomes permanently unavailable or if NASA fails to publish 2026 data before the stated March 1, 2027 deadline.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the year 2026 will rank as the third-hottest year on record in NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index dataset.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if 2026 ranks third when years are ordered descending by temperature, where the hottest year is rank 1. If 2026 ties with another year, it resolves according to the rank that year occupies. The market resolves to No if 2026 occupies any rank other than third. Resolution occurs immediately once data is published and is not altered by subsequent revisions. NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index table (specifically the 2026 value under No_Smoothing) serves as the primary decider. If permanently unavailable, other NASA information may be used. If NASA provides no data for 2026 by March 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index table
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·