Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market relies on a specific, named official source and table from NASA GISS data.
Read the full assessment
This market relies on a specific, named official source and table from NASA GISS data. Resolution mechanics are well-defined: years will be ranked in descending order using the un-smoothed Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026. The rules clearly state that resolution happens immediately once initial data is published, ignoring subsequent revisions. A specific fallback clause applies only if NASA fails to publish data by March 1, 2027, leaving minimal room for decider discretion under normal circumstances.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
6%
chance▼ −2.5 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the year 2026 will rank as the second-hottest year on record in NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if 2026 ranks as the second-hottest year (number 2) when all years with data are ordered from hottest to coldest. If 2026 ties with another year, it resolves according to the shared rank place. The market resolves No if 2026 occupies any rank other than second. The primary decider is NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data table under the No_Smoothing column. Resolution happens immediately when data is released, ignoring later revisions. If the primary index is permanently unavailable, other NASA data will be used. If NASA provides no data by March 1, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible reporting will decide.
Resolution source
NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index table (Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C), No_Smoothing column)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·