Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules are clearly defined with an objective metric and single resolution source.
Read the full assessment
The rules are clearly defined with an objective metric and single resolution source. Resolution is determined strictly by the 1-minute candle high price for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET. The market resolves to Yes immediately if that price reaches or exceeds $200,000 during the window, and resolves to No otherwise. Prices on other exchanges or pairs are explicitly excluded.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $200,000 before the end of 2026, tracked specifically via Binance 1-minute candle high prices.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair has a final High price equal to or greater than $200,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The market relies solely on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart data, and prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are not considered.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle High prices
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·