Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules are clearly defined with an objective resolution metric and source.
Read the full assessment
The rules are clearly defined with an objective resolution metric and source. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle high prices for the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance during the specified timeframe. If any candle hits or exceeds $500,000, the market resolves to Yes immediately; otherwise, it resolves to No after the final deadline. Position holders only need to note that prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are entirely excluded from consideration.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $500,000 on Binance by December 31, 2026. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle high prices from Binance's BTC/USDT pair.
How it resolves
The market will immediately resolve to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final High price equal to or greater than $500,000 between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to No. Resolution is determined strictly by Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data; prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets are not considered.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·